Mog Bonanaza - aka Ho-ly Sshh, SE! O.O
- Thread starter Lexa
- Start date
I like the concept and the fact that they listed Summoner's Horn twice.
"If you want the doublet, fuck you!" -SE
On a side note, let the RMTs try to force win this thing. If you do all possible combinations, you end up winning roughly 200 million gil (more if you are smart about it i.e. instead of taking 100k, take the behemoth hide). But it requires 10,000 characters and a 100 million gil investment. I don't even think they have those resources and even if they do, this event doesn't lower your reward if an RMT wins so them winning doesn't directly affect anyone else.
"If you want the doublet, fuck you!" -SE
On a side note, let the RMTs try to force win this thing. If you do all possible combinations, you end up winning roughly 200 million gil (more if you are smart about it i.e. instead of taking 100k, take the behemoth hide). But it requires 10,000 characters and a 100 million gil investment. I don't even think they have those resources and even if they do, this event doesn't lower your reward if an RMT wins so them winning doesn't directly affect anyone else.
Zeri
Retainer of the House of Ultimague
Like Fodd said, 1/100,000. But because you can have 10 marbles per character, really 1/10,000. So in fact RMT only need 10,000 characters to ensure themselves a win. I bet they could do that no prob.
Some other fun statistics for you... Per character your chances of winning are...:
5th Rank: 100%
4th Rank: 10%
3rd Rank: 1%
2nd Rank: 0.1%
1st Rank: 0.01%
Maximum payout per tier (at current prices. Not accounting insanely sweet R/E items):
5th Rank: 0gil
4th Rank: 800,000gil
3rd Rank: 1,000,000gil
2nd Rank: 10,000,000gil
1st Rank: 100,000,000gil
Now that's a legitimate concern... Maybe I should say 500k on 4th tier to be on safe side. I don't think payout will ever drop below 400k given Damascus Ingot though. Even still, I think the Potential Payout vs. Odds of winning still lean in favor of 4th.
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Zeri
Retainer of the House of Ultimague
I personally agree with you. I don't put it past them to scan numbers in distribution and find one not in use. But assuming it's same number for all servers, I'd believe RMT have 10,000 characters across all the servers easily. And I'd also believe they're methodical enough to guarantee a 100,000,000 payout if so.
Think about how much 100,000,000 is worth in real money. Just searching around RMT sites, the cheapest I can see is $715.30 for 20million gil on Valefor. Yes, prices vary by server but whatever. The point is 100,000,000gil is worth roughly $3,600 USD, or about 25,200 Chinese Yuan. To put in perspective for you how much that is... the "overall average per capita income of Beijing's residents was 15,600 yuan (US$1,900) last year."
You know they're going to guarantee a win. If SE were really brilliant, they'd use this to smoke out the RMT looking for accounts and characters with consecutive numbers across all of them. But I doubt it...
DeeDoubleOhEhm
Tiny Dancer
I think this is in reality just another RMT countermeasure. If you pick the 100m, they ban you. :bfg:
Zeri
Retainer of the House of Ultimague
More musings...
I wonder if they'll randomize the 5 digit number shortly before drawing, or if it's a significant number they've decided on already... I somehow doubt the latter, but wouldn't put it past them. If it were a significant number they decided on, what might it be? Some thoughts considering it's approaching 6th anniversary... any ideas anyone?
02716 - After the mine shaft (thanks Eti)
51602 - Original JP PS2 release date
02516 - PS2 Release in Japanese order
14516 - PS2 Release in Japanese year, Heisei 14
52728 - Yoshitaka Amano's B-day
27728 - Above, Japanese year Showa 27
72124 - Naoshi Mizuta's B-day (remaining FFXI composer)
47124 - Above, year Showa 47
I wonder if they'll randomize the 5 digit number shortly before drawing, or if it's a significant number they've decided on already... I somehow doubt the latter, but wouldn't put it past them. If it were a significant number they decided on, what might it be? Some thoughts considering it's approaching 6th anniversary... any ideas anyone?
02716 - After the mine shaft (thanks Eti)
51602 - Original JP PS2 release date
02516 - PS2 Release in Japanese order
14516 - PS2 Release in Japanese year, Heisei 14
52728 - Yoshitaka Amano's B-day
27728 - Above, Japanese year Showa 27
72124 - Naoshi Mizuta's B-day (remaining FFXI composer)
47124 - Above, year Showa 47
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You multiplied when you should have added
If it only took 5 characters to guarantee a 100 million gil payout, the economy would be pretty much destroyed. It's really5th: .05% (50 marbles / 100,000 possibilities)
4th: .04% (40 marbles / 100,000 possibilities)
3rd: .03% (30 marbles / 100,000 possibilities)
2nd: .02% (20 marbles / 100,000 possibilities)
1st: .01% (10 marbles / 100,000 possibilities)
Regardless, these 100,000,000 gil payouts won't necessarily go as far as people think they will. Every single marble that is sold introduces 3,000 new gil into the economy. You can figure this out by looking at the probabilities of each outcome and its net effect on the economy:
5 digits match - .001% - +100,000,000 - 1,000
4 digits match - .01% - +10,000,000 - 1,000
3 digits match - .1% - +1,000,000 - 1,000
2 digits match - 1% - +100,000 - 1,000
1 digit matches - 10% - -1,000
0 digits match - 88.89% - -1,000
Then figuring out
.00001 x 99,999,000 (999.99)
+ .0001 x 9,999,000 (999.9)
+ .001 x 999,000 (999)
+ .01 x 99,000 (990)
+ .9889 x -1,000 (-988.9)
999.99 + 999.9 + 999 + 990 - 988.9 = +3,000
So each marble results in an average of +3,000 gil.
If your average person is buying 20 marbles that's 60k per person introduced into the economy. There's easily going to be 3,000 people per server doing this, for an additional 180m gil per server being added to the economy.
Obviously I don't keep up with the market, but that's a non-trivial amount of inflation. Perhaps that's what the market needs though.
Zeri
Retainer of the House of Ultimague
@Kalia,
That's why I was saying to pair up with someone. I have 5 char, if they have 5 char. It's a lot simpler than you have listed, but 5+5=10. You CAN guarantee 4th place (not first) with 10 characters who have 10 marbles each (100 marbles).
It takes 10,000 characters (with 10 marbles each) to guarantee 100m. Please read what I actually wrote instead of jumping to conclusions... :'(
You're also assuming random digits. Conditions are...:
00000
00001
00002
00003
00004
00005
00006
00007
00008
00009
You have each last digit represented, therefore win 5th place.
That's why I was saying to pair up with someone. I have 5 char, if they have 5 char. It's a lot simpler than you have listed, but 5+5=10. You CAN guarantee 4th place (not first) with 10 characters who have 10 marbles each (100 marbles).
It takes 10,000 characters (with 10 marbles each) to guarantee 100m. Please read what I actually wrote instead of jumping to conclusions... :'(
You're also assuming random digits. Conditions are...:
in short, one character with 10 marbles
00000
00001
00002
00003
00004
00005
00006
00007
00008
00009
You have each last digit represented, therefore win 5th place.
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At first I thought you might mean that, but then your chances of winning with your 1st character is 100%, not 0.1%. But now I realize your wording was ambiguous, your 5th, 4th, 3rd, 2nd, 1st are prize ranks. They sounded like characters, i.e. your 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, or 5th character. Either way, my jump to conclusions mat is and has been securely tucked away under my bed, so there's no need to snap. 
Also I wasn't assuming random digits, if you look over what I wrote again it was simply the odds of winning 1st place given 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 characters.
Also I wasn't assuming random digits, if you look over what I wrote again it was simply the odds of winning 1st place given 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 characters.
It may be best to take the 100k for Rank 4.
Let's just say conservatively there are 700 rank 4 winners on a server.
Figure that ~100 go for bounding boots, rain hat, emp. pin etc
Split evenly that makes for 200 each of khroma are, d ingots and b hides. There is 1 B Hide on the AH at 800k right now. What happens when that number hits 50, 100, 200, more?
As a result, the dusk and hauby markets should sink as well.
Let's just say conservatively there are 700 rank 4 winners on a server.
Figure that ~100 go for bounding boots, rain hat, emp. pin etc
Split evenly that makes for 200 each of khroma are, d ingots and b hides. There is 1 B Hide on the AH at 800k right now. What happens when that number hits 50, 100, 200, more?
As a result, the dusk and hauby markets should sink as well.
cheers3:thanks but kalia/zeri's probabaility was what i wanted to see. =p