When I Bought this game and paid 90 days sub it was listed as having the ability to build a house as a feature . . the MAIN reason I joined. . . Now I find out I have to wait Months and possibly YEARS to get a home HOW can they NOT fix such a broken system Read the following Math:
Yes, it’s technically possible to be unlucky enough to never win a housing lottery in Final Fantasy XIV, meaning some players can indeed go years without acquiring a home. However, the system is based on chance, and while many community analyses have tried to pin down rough probabilities, there is no official “lottery odds” published by Square Enix. What follows is one way to think about the situation using predictive equations and statistical reasoning derived from community data and observed trends.
Step 1. Modeling the Lottery
Many players share that in highly sought‐after housing locations the effective chance of winning per lottery entry is very low—often estimated in community analyses to be anywhere from about 1% to 5%. For the sake of example, let’s assume a conservative estimate of a 2% chance (p = 0.02) per lottery entry.
Step 2. Calculating Expected Entries Until a Win
Using a simple geometric distribution (which models the number of independent trials needed until a success occurs), the expected number of lottery entries before winning is given by:
Expected Entries = 1/p.
With p = 0.02, that is roughly 50 entries.
Step 3. Converting Entries to Real Time
How long these 50 entries take to accumulate depends on the frequency of lottery events in a given housing zone. For instance, if a lottery is held once per month then the expected waiting time is approximately 50 months (a bit over 4 years).
Step 4. Variability and “Bad Luck”
It is important to note that these numbers represent an average. Because the lottery events are probabilistic and independent, it is completely possible for a player to have a string of “losses” – meaning they could go significantly longer than average without ever securing a win. The probability of never winning in n consecutive lotteries is (1 – p)ⁿ; while this probability gets very small as n grows large, the chance remains nonzero, which is why some players report waiting unusually long periods.
In summary, while statistically one would expect to win after about 50 entries (or roughly 4 years), the inherent randomness of the lottery means that some players might experience significantly worse luck and go many years without ever winning a home.
Square Enix is SOO ashamed of this system I was Muted for talking about it in the rant Room of Discord!!
Continue reading...
Yes, it’s technically possible to be unlucky enough to never win a housing lottery in Final Fantasy XIV, meaning some players can indeed go years without acquiring a home. However, the system is based on chance, and while many community analyses have tried to pin down rough probabilities, there is no official “lottery odds” published by Square Enix. What follows is one way to think about the situation using predictive equations and statistical reasoning derived from community data and observed trends.
Step 1. Modeling the Lottery
Many players share that in highly sought‐after housing locations the effective chance of winning per lottery entry is very low—often estimated in community analyses to be anywhere from about 1% to 5%. For the sake of example, let’s assume a conservative estimate of a 2% chance (p = 0.02) per lottery entry.
Step 2. Calculating Expected Entries Until a Win
Using a simple geometric distribution (which models the number of independent trials needed until a success occurs), the expected number of lottery entries before winning is given by:
Expected Entries = 1/p.
With p = 0.02, that is roughly 50 entries.
Step 3. Converting Entries to Real Time
How long these 50 entries take to accumulate depends on the frequency of lottery events in a given housing zone. For instance, if a lottery is held once per month then the expected waiting time is approximately 50 months (a bit over 4 years).
Step 4. Variability and “Bad Luck”
It is important to note that these numbers represent an average. Because the lottery events are probabilistic and independent, it is completely possible for a player to have a string of “losses” – meaning they could go significantly longer than average without ever securing a win. The probability of never winning in n consecutive lotteries is (1 – p)ⁿ; while this probability gets very small as n grows large, the chance remains nonzero, which is why some players report waiting unusually long periods.
In summary, while statistically one would expect to win after about 50 entries (or roughly 4 years), the inherent randomness of the lottery means that some players might experience significantly worse luck and go many years without ever winning a home.
Square Enix is SOO ashamed of this system I was Muted for talking about it in the rant Room of Discord!!
Continue reading...