Patch 5.4 introduces the ability to perform an Advanced Materia Meld in bulk. After the bulk meld is processed, a message will state how many materia were lost in the process due to failed melds. The chance of overmelding into the 5th materia slot of an item with one slot (a belt or accessory) is 5%. One would expect to succeed on the 20th try, with the obvious caveat that it will usually be more or fewer than that.
Over the next few days, tens of thousands of pieces of the ilvl 510 Exarchic set will be crafted and then filled with materia. Many, many, many of these melds will have over 100 failures on the 5th slot. Of the people unlucky enough to have that happen, plenty of them will think it such an astronomical event that reddit just needs to see it. Rule 4b of /r/ffxiv prohibits repetitive posts such as RNG posts, specifically including "materia affixing results". Don't be shy about reporting such posts, and don't be surprised if you post one and it gets removed.
That said, if you would like to see the math on this, here are the odds of getting X failures on a 5% chance:
100 failures: (0.95)100 = 0.592% = 1 in 169
120 failures: (0.95)120 = 0.212% = 1 in 471
140 failures: (0.95)140 = 0.0761% = 1 in 1314
160 failures: (0.95)160 = 0.0273% = 1 in 3666
180 failures: (0.95)180 = 0.00978% = 1 in 10227
200 failures: (0.95)200 = 0.00351% = 1 in 28528
As you can see, even though about 20 tries is a sensible expectation, having failures in the high 100s or even above 200 is something that will undoubtedly happen to a bunch of people, given the number of raiders prepping for Eden by pentamelding accessories.
If you intend to buy and overmeld a full crafted set, that includes a belt and 5 accessories. If each member of your static does so, that's 48 pieces. And 48 more pieces with a 7% success rate on the 5th materia slot. Here are the odds that at least one person in your static (including you) will have at least one piece that fails X times on the last slot.
100 failures: 1 - [(1 - 0.00592)48 * (1 - 0.000705)48 ] = 27.3%
120 failures: 1 - [(1 - 0.00212)48 * (1 - 0.000165)48 ] = 10.4%
140 failures: 1 - [(1 - 0.000761)48 * (1 - 0.0000387)48 ] = 3.77%
160 failures: 1 - [(1 - 0.000273)48 * (1 - 0.00000906)48 ] = 1.34%
180 failures: 1 - [(1 - 0.0000978)48 * (1 - 0.00000212)48 ] = 0.478%
200 failures: 1 - [(1 - 0.0000351)48 * (1 - 0.000000497)48 ] = 0.171%
Good luck with your melds—hope for the best but prepare for the worst and don't let it catch you completely off guard!
submitted by /u/Hiten_Style
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Continue reading...
Over the next few days, tens of thousands of pieces of the ilvl 510 Exarchic set will be crafted and then filled with materia. Many, many, many of these melds will have over 100 failures on the 5th slot. Of the people unlucky enough to have that happen, plenty of them will think it such an astronomical event that reddit just needs to see it. Rule 4b of /r/ffxiv prohibits repetitive posts such as RNG posts, specifically including "materia affixing results". Don't be shy about reporting such posts, and don't be surprised if you post one and it gets removed.
That said, if you would like to see the math on this, here are the odds of getting X failures on a 5% chance:
100 failures: (0.95)100 = 0.592% = 1 in 169
120 failures: (0.95)120 = 0.212% = 1 in 471
140 failures: (0.95)140 = 0.0761% = 1 in 1314
160 failures: (0.95)160 = 0.0273% = 1 in 3666
180 failures: (0.95)180 = 0.00978% = 1 in 10227
200 failures: (0.95)200 = 0.00351% = 1 in 28528
As you can see, even though about 20 tries is a sensible expectation, having failures in the high 100s or even above 200 is something that will undoubtedly happen to a bunch of people, given the number of raiders prepping for Eden by pentamelding accessories.
If you intend to buy and overmeld a full crafted set, that includes a belt and 5 accessories. If each member of your static does so, that's 48 pieces. And 48 more pieces with a 7% success rate on the 5th materia slot. Here are the odds that at least one person in your static (including you) will have at least one piece that fails X times on the last slot.
100 failures: 1 - [(1 - 0.00592)48 * (1 - 0.000705)48 ] = 27.3%
120 failures: 1 - [(1 - 0.00212)48 * (1 - 0.000165)48 ] = 10.4%
140 failures: 1 - [(1 - 0.000761)48 * (1 - 0.0000387)48 ] = 3.77%
160 failures: 1 - [(1 - 0.000273)48 * (1 - 0.00000906)48 ] = 1.34%
180 failures: 1 - [(1 - 0.0000978)48 * (1 - 0.00000212)48 ] = 0.478%
200 failures: 1 - [(1 - 0.0000351)48 * (1 - 0.000000497)48 ] = 0.171%
Good luck with your melds—hope for the best but prepare for the worst and don't let it catch you completely off guard!
submitted by /u/Hiten_Style
[link] [comments]
Continue reading...