Losing sucks.
Having to wait 8-10 days after losing is even worse.
The best/worst thing about plaque-clicking was that at least when a new house came up, it was on its own timer and you could possibly go try your luck with another. Now, you have suffer in defeat over and over again with massive wait periods. Each house should have a 12 hour - 2 day "unavailable" period (random for fairness and playerbase optics) and then a 1-3 day lottery period. Still keep your 1 bid per player limit so people can't flip it around everywhere, OR if they WANT to withdraw their bid, there's a 5-25% withdrawal fee (also random for fairness) so withdrawing is a serious consideration that can be costly, but worth it if they wish to bid on another plot.
Also, there is a CLEAR bias towards late bidders. I scanned over 100 plots in the "results period" of bidding and 77.65% of winning numbers were above the 50% threshold in the previous results cycle. Meaning if 6 total bidders were on a plot, there was a 77.65% chance the number was 4, 5, or 6. This is an insane result, and I believe shows a problem with the bidding system. I will be scanning the results period this time as well for more data. If anyone has similar data from past results periods, I'd be interested in seeing it. I noticed this trend when I would see a rush to bid in the last 24 hours of the bidding period, with those placing bids early win less than 1/4 of the time. It almost feels akin to bug abuse. Just based on this results period alone, I will not be bidding until the final hours and would heavily recommend players to avoid bidding early.
Anyways, what do you think of the suggestion and data? Personally, I despise it and it is incredibly demoralizing to have to wait so long just to try again for a part of the game I consider among the most enjoyable.
EDIT: I surveyed ALL 30 Mist wards on a new server and took the results of all Large houses. 27 Large houses were being bid on. 16 Houses were above the 50% results threshold. 11 houses were below the 50% threshold. 5 of the 16 houses were the LAST BID. Mathematically, this is more evidence the results are skewed towards late bidders. If you were above the 50% threshold of bids, you had a 59.25% chance of the number falling in that half. If you were in the bottom half, you only had a 40.75% chance. I think this is significant to support my original hypothesis. I will retest in the next phase. Let me know if you want me to go through all the wards of the other locations as well.
Continue reading...
Having to wait 8-10 days after losing is even worse.
The best/worst thing about plaque-clicking was that at least when a new house came up, it was on its own timer and you could possibly go try your luck with another. Now, you have suffer in defeat over and over again with massive wait periods. Each house should have a 12 hour - 2 day "unavailable" period (random for fairness and playerbase optics) and then a 1-3 day lottery period. Still keep your 1 bid per player limit so people can't flip it around everywhere, OR if they WANT to withdraw their bid, there's a 5-25% withdrawal fee (also random for fairness) so withdrawing is a serious consideration that can be costly, but worth it if they wish to bid on another plot.
Also, there is a CLEAR bias towards late bidders. I scanned over 100 plots in the "results period" of bidding and 77.65% of winning numbers were above the 50% threshold in the previous results cycle. Meaning if 6 total bidders were on a plot, there was a 77.65% chance the number was 4, 5, or 6. This is an insane result, and I believe shows a problem with the bidding system. I will be scanning the results period this time as well for more data. If anyone has similar data from past results periods, I'd be interested in seeing it. I noticed this trend when I would see a rush to bid in the last 24 hours of the bidding period, with those placing bids early win less than 1/4 of the time. It almost feels akin to bug abuse. Just based on this results period alone, I will not be bidding until the final hours and would heavily recommend players to avoid bidding early.
Anyways, what do you think of the suggestion and data? Personally, I despise it and it is incredibly demoralizing to have to wait so long just to try again for a part of the game I consider among the most enjoyable.
EDIT: I surveyed ALL 30 Mist wards on a new server and took the results of all Large houses. 27 Large houses were being bid on. 16 Houses were above the 50% results threshold. 11 houses were below the 50% threshold. 5 of the 16 houses were the LAST BID. Mathematically, this is more evidence the results are skewed towards late bidders. If you were above the 50% threshold of bids, you had a 59.25% chance of the number falling in that half. If you were in the bottom half, you only had a 40.75% chance. I think this is significant to support my original hypothesis. I will retest in the next phase. Let me know if you want me to go through all the wards of the other locations as well.
Continue reading...