[spoilers: Job Quests!] Because I'm Bored, A 'how Common Are The Game's Jobs In The Game...

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As a roleplayer who has a compulsive need to do every single job in the game, I've started meticulously keeping tabs on how common jobs are in the actual game world. Because I like to know I'm being lore-accurate, which leads to me learning just how improbable certain character concepts are!

Only covering spoilers about a job questline here as much as it pertains to 'how likely are they', so while there aren't that many spoilers here, I'm still marking it as a just-in-case. For every job, I'm covering both how likely they are in the world, and what the odds are that a random person might have it, including both 'sanctioned' and 'unsanctioned'.

Paladin
(fair warning: I haven't played Paladin yet)
How many, and where? Paladin is mostly handled by the Sultansworn of Ul'Dah. That means the 'official' numbers aren't big, but the ones that are around are fairly prominent.
What're my odds? I'm pretty sure the Sultansworn keep good track of their Paladin crystals, so any 'legitimate' Paladin will likely be tied to them somehow, positively or negatively. That said, there are people with the Paladin skillset that are clearly outside of the Sultansworn (Branden, the knight of the Warriors of Darkness in the First, appears to be one), so just happening to have a similar skillset is totally valid.

Warrior
How many, and where? The 'official' Warriors are a tribe of roegadyn hailing from Abalathia's Spine; there aren't many, but they're pretty open about what they are, as friendly as they can manage, and work with the Marauder's Guild to train any who have similar issues with their 'Inner Beast'.
What're my odds? Sure, you could be from that one roegadyn tribe. But we also see that they aren't the only ones that work to harness the Inner Beast--and have troubles doing so. There's entirely unrelated tribes in the Azim Steppe that work through the same thing, so it's entirely possible you could have the same abilities while completely unrelated.

Dark Knight
How many, and where? Right now there's like, three. The Dark Knights used to be a somewhat sizeable order, but their general tendencies towards violence and pursuing their goals at all costs led to... a lot of bodies.
What're my odds? Unclear, but there's definitely a lot more dark knight crystals than just the ones owned by you and Sidurgu; there seems to be one all the way in Gunnhildr's Blades, after all. Not only are there likely a lot of 'legitimate' Dark Knight soul crystals hanging around without living owners, it also seems to be a skillset not completely impossible to gather independently.
Now being a GOOD Dark Knight, that's an entirely different question.

Gunbreaker
(fair warning: I haven't played Gunbreaker yet)
How many, and where? The ex-guard of the nation of Bozja. There aren't many, but they're trying to rebuild.
What're my odds? Gunbreaker actually seems to be one of the few jobs actively recruiting right now, so that's not a bad angle. On top of that, it's worth addressing the 'Garlean gunblade' angle; Gunbreaker and Garlean gunblades are explicitly different designs, but there's plenty of weapon models that can work for the latter, and people generally accept the notion of playing a Gunbreaker with the latter. Hell, Gaius uses a Garlean gunblade like a Bozjan one.

White Mage
How many, and where? Not many. White Magic is governed by the Padjali, who are typically very unlikely to share.
What're my odds? Officially? Extremely low. There probably aren't very many White Mage soul crystals kicking around. However, it is a skillset that it seems pretty easy to put together something close to, such as we see from Lamitt, Y'shtola, and the Crystal Exarch.

Astrologian
How many, and where? The easy trap here is to say 'a bunch, in Ishgard', but that's only half-right. The actual combat-ready astrology we see used isn't Ishgardian astrology, which is much more passive and focused on ship movements and the like; we wield Sharlayan astrology.
What're my odds? Sharlayan astrology is slowly picking up outside of Sharlayan, and of course has plenty of practitioners in their home nation. Urianger also gives us the idea that it's the sort of school that you can pick up and teach yourself independently, although it might not be the easiest thing.

Scholar
How many, and where? Literally one. Throughout the entirety of the game, in job quests, the main quest, major sidequests, and everything like that, everything suggests that the Warrior of Light is the only currently practicing Nymian Scholar.
What're my odds? No idea. I'd reason that it wouldn't be that weird if there were others that also found Scholar soul crystals and trained themselves, but we never see one, so I don't know.

Monk
How many, and where? Either the survivors of the destruction of the Temple of the Fist, or the people that study there after its reformation in the Stormblood questline. Not big, but growing.
What're my chances? Like Gunbreaker, it's currently recruiting, so being one isn't weird at all! It's also possible that an older character is a survivor of the original massacre (we meet several of them), or even a member of the Pugilist's Guild, since they're in contact with them.

Dragoon
How many, and where? I mean... we know where they are. Their numbers are historically low; around the start of the game they're at about ten, and at their maximum they only have about thirty at one time. They're also the type to hold close to all their soul crystals, so chance of one 'leaking' is low.
What're my odds? While the Dragoons are growing, they aren't actively recruiting per se; they're nominating those who show potential, and then usually putting them through one hell of a training regiment. So while you could be a legitimate Dragoon, being one implies that you're something properly special. That said, lance work also isn't that weird, so it's totally plausible to put together a decent imitation of their combat style, even if you wouldn't get the jumping and dragon stuff without something extra.

Ninja
How many, and where? Who can say? There's definitely an amount of ninjas, both in Doma and outside of it, but being ninjas, I couldn't tell you how many.
What're my odds? While they clearly recruit outsiders sometimes, it seems like most ninjas have been pretty close to their order and government (or the Doman resistance) for some time. You wouldn't just 'happen' to be a Ninja if you didn't grow up with them; you'd have a specific story.

Samurai
How many, and where? Well, they're mostly the law enforcement of Hingashi, but there's some outsiders that aren't particularly well-regarded.
What're my odds? Very similar to Ninja; if you grew up there and among them it wouldn't be weird although it'd probably be most of your life, but if you're in any way foreign to that, while it's still possible, you'd definitely have a story to tell about how you know the katana.

Bard
(fair warning: I haven't completed much of Bard yet)
How many, and where? While to my knowledge there's only one actual Bard in the game outside of the WoL, it's not written as if there is only one. However, it seems to be generally a solitary occupation.
What're my odds? Can you play an instrument and shoot a bow at the same time? It's another of the very self-teachable styles, and no part of the skillset demands a specific upbringing or knowledge.

Machinist
How many, and where? The Machinists in Ishgard are actively trying to prove themselves to be a legitimate Job. There's also plenty of gunners from the Garlean Empire, both as their soldiers and in the resistance, and guns at least seem to be somewhat common among the sailors of Limsa.
What're my odds? A 'legitimate' Machinist, with all the gadgets and techniques, would only come from Ishgard, but they've been growing their numbers--they seem to be another of the active recruiters. On top of that, there's plenty of ways to just be Good At Guns, even if that wouldn't give you the whole Machinist kit.

Dancer
How many, and where? A school of dance from Thavnair. While there's only the one small troupe traveling outside of it, that type of dance seems to be at least kinda common inside the country.
What're my odds? It's hard to say for certain among actual Thavnairians, but it does seem uncommon enough to be a complete novelty in Eorzea, so either you're from there or you're new to it. However, Captain Lyna is evidence enough that similar styles probably developed in parallel, although they might not be exactly the same.

Black Mage
How many, and where? Not many! While Black Magic and the Black Mage soul crystals were somewhat commonplace in the time of Mhach, these days the crystals are effectively illegal, and the only practicing black mages are either doing so under extreme constraints with the Thaumaturges' Guild, or are very reclusive practitioners in the wilderness (who may or may not be killing themselves by doing it wrong).
What're my odds? Well, you're not gonna be admitting to being a Black Mage, that's for sure. While learning it isn't impossible, you're either doing it under the Thamaturges' strict supervision, or doing it in secret because it's so frowned upon. However, being a very good thaumaturge isn't that far off, and Nyelbert of the Warriors of Darkness is, again, proof that something similar can grow indepeendently. ...although something that looks an awful lot like black magic is still probably gonna be frowned upon.

Summoner
How many, and where? The Summoner questline elaborates on how the Immortal Flames have a whole division of summoners, and the Summoner soul crystals are at least modestly commonplace. Of course, you still need to find a primal to summon an Egi.
What're my chances? Very weird. Again, the Immortal Flames train a whole division of them, and because of that, most of those summoners can summon an Ifrit-Egi, although it's not easy. People without the Echo can get tempered, so getting a taste of their aether to summon an Egi is actually so rare and difficult that, by the time we hit level 80, the best summoner that isn't us only has Ifrit and Titan. There's definitely a lot of ways you could be a good Summoner, even without the Echo, but it wouldn't be something that just anyone could or would do.

Red Mage
How many, and where? Red Magic was an Ala Mhigan school born from the ashes of the War of the Magi. There's only a handful of practitioners now, but that's a very recent collapse that its one senior user has been willing to fix.
What're my chances? Did you meet the one guy left who grew up learning it? Because he'll teach you if you meet him, but he's not easy to track down.

Blue Mage
How many, and where? Blue Magic is an at least somewhat popular school of magic in the New World. To Eorzea, though, it's mostly a carnival act and a gimmick; while there are plenty of Blue Mage soul crystals around, using the school isn't easy.
What're my chances? Of just owning a Blue Mage crystal, not too bad; they were basically being handed out for free. But being able to use the thing, that's a hurdle that most people who tried weren't able to get over. You're not necessarily super special if you did, but it's the sort of thing people would be interested in at a party.

submitted by /u/Cleretic
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