In case you missed it, in a recent interview, Yoshi-P confirmed that Alexandria is from the Ninth shard. This is helpful because there was a lot of people confused as to what shard Alexandria is originally from. There was a lot of theories flying around as to the origins of the high-tech civilization we see in Dawntrail, with one of the most popular ones pre-release being that it was from the Twelfth Shard, the Shard that was Rejoined in the Calamity of Lightning. In fact, this was the theory that I had personally subscribed to as being the most likely when going into Dawntrail, and it was one I had in the back of my head when playing through the MSQ. However, the theory was wrong - by the end of the MSQ of base game Dawntrail, it was made clear that it did not make sense for the Alexandrian civilization to have been from the Twelfth. Despite this, there was still a lot of claims being thrown around that Alexandria was from the Twelfth. With this interview, hopefully that misinfo will stop, but in case you're not sure why this theory was definitively disproved by the information supplied in Dawntrail, I'm going to lay it all out now.
First of all, let's just write down the history of Umbral Calamities. This will be important later. Each Umbral Calamity was attuned to an element (except for the most recent, which was all elements), and each Calamity came with it the Rejoining of a Shard to the Source. For a Rejoining to occur, both the Source and the Shard being Rejoined must be heavily attunted to the same element. The degree to which the aether of the two worlds must be tipped towards said element is so unbalanced as to inevitably cause disasters for both worlds. On the Source, this disaster is called an Umbral Calamity, while for the Shard that is Rejoined, either the imbalance is enough to destroy the Shard, or the Shard is destroyed in the Rejoining. It's unclear: the best example we would have is that Norvrandt needed to be entirely flooded with light to be Rejoined, thus implying the disaster precedes the Rejoining, but that detail doesn't matter too much; all you need to know is that the Shard is aetherically imbalanced to the point of being unliveable, and then ceases to exist as its aether flows into the Source.
Here are the Umbral Calamities/Rejoinings that have occurred in the history of Etheirys, the element that was used to facilitate the Rejoining, and the Shard that was Rejoined:
First Umbral Calamity - Wind - Fifth
Second Umbral Calamity - Lightning - Twelfth
Third Umbral Calamity - Fire - Second
Fourth Umbral Calamity - Earth - Third
Fifth Umbral Calamity - Ice - Sixth
Sixth Umbral Calamity - Water - Tenth
Seventh Umbral Calamity - Astral - Seventh
Note that "Umbral" is kind of a misnomer, particularly for the Seventh Umbral Calamity, as the element(s) used do not actually have to be umbrally aligned (that is, Light-aligned). That's not important for our main topic though so we don't have to go further into that.
Now let's go through the history of Alexandria. Over the course of the Dawntrail MSQ, we learn that Alexandria is a civilization that originally hails from another Shard. The Shard it was home to had a yearly season of dangerous storms and lightning that, over time, grew longer and longer, going from taking up a quarter of the year to half of the year.
Sometime around this point in history, the Source had undergone the Fifth Umbral Calamity, and had entered the Fifth Umbral Era, a.k.a. the Age of Endless Frost. Basically, big Ice Age, bad times for everyone. During this ice age, the Lalafellin population of Aloalo Island of the South Sea Isles used a mysterious key to escape their frost-bitten homeland and travel to another world: Alexandria's Shard. We know that the Lalafellin who arrived in Alexandria's Shard are the very same that disappeared from the South Sea Isles because they brought with them the practice of Arcanima, which originated on the Source from, that's right, the Lalafellin of the South Sea Isles... the very same ones that disappeared in the middle of the Fifth Umbral Era.
It was arcanima that allowed for inscription of arcane symbols upon the miraculous substance "electrope", thus turning the stormy season of the Shard from a bane to a boon. From there, the nations of the Shard, including Alexandria and Lindblum, fought a war over the rare and immensely useful substance. This war is known as the Storm Surge, and it ended when Lindblum set off a weapon of mass destruction made using electrope technology, which ended up devastating the continent. This event is explicitly compared to an Umbral Calamity by the party members present for this exposition.
I think it's this comparison that has caused the most confusion regarding the origin of Alexandria. We already know of one Lightning-aspected Umbral Calamity: the Second Umbral Calamity, the one that Rejoined the Twelfth. Many assumed that these two Umbral Calamites must be one and the same. However, this cannot be the case. After all, while an Umbral Calamity is a crucial part of a Rejoining, there's no reason why one can't occur without a Rejoining happening. Heck, that very thing happens in the form of the Flood of Light on the First, an elemental imbalance that devastated nearly the entire Shard, but ultimately did not lead to it being Rejoined. "Umbral Calamity" can just refer to a big Calamity in which the aether of a massive region (up to and including the entire Shard in question) is dangerously imbalanced. But I know, it's not enough to just point out it doesn't have to be the same Calamity, I need to show you that it can't be the same Calamity- and it, in fact, cannot. There's two reasons why:
First of all: the timing. We know that the Lalafellin from the Source traveled to Alexandria's Shard during the Fifth Umbral Era. This is several eras, and thus hundreds of years, *after* the Calamity of Lightning that Rejoined the Twelfth! Some people have pointed out that time flows differently between Shards, and while that's true, time doesn't run *backwards* on any of the Shards. For the Aloalo Lalafellin who exist in a world that has been shaped by the historical event of the Second Umbral Calamity, to travel and end up on the Shard that was Rejoined in the Calamity, actual capital-T Time Travel would have had to occur. While time travel does exist in FFXIV's setting, it is difficult to perform, and we have been given no evidence that the mysterious key that facilitated the Lalafellin exodus is capable of not just inter-Shard travel but capital-T Time Travel.
Now, inter-Shard time travel that results in a closed loop *has* happened before- namely, in Endwalker. (No, not Shadowbringers, that wasn't a closed loop.) BUT, for it to have occurred in this case requires some assumptions (namely, about the limits of what the mysterious key can do) that I think are just too big to make given what we know now. So, if this were the only problem with the "Alexandria is from the Twelfth Shard" theory, I'd say it's still possible But it's not the only problem.
The second reason why Alexandria can't be from the Twelfth: because the Shard that Alexandria is from *still exists.* At the very end of the Dawntrail MSQ, we defeat Sphene, the artificial sky over Living Memory vanishes, and we see the Sun. The "Unlost World," the Shard that Living Memory was moved to, is a Shard that still exists and has not been Rejoined. The Twelfth has been Rejoined and thus does not exist, the Unlost World does exist, therefore the Unlost World cannot be the Rejoined Twelfth.
I've seen some people argue that a Rejoined Shard might still exist to some degree, just sucked entirely dry of its aether. I'm not convinced by this. Everything we're told about Rejoinings implies that there is nothing left of the Shard that is Rejoined. I don't think that you could even *travel to* a Rejoined Shard: there'd be no destination for you to reach. So, transporting an entire city there would be out of the question.
Now, we've seen locations that have been more or less sucked dry of aether, namely the Burn. However, the Burn is explicitly described as having at least a little bit of aether in it: that's how there are monsters still around for us to fight. In fact, the Shard that Living Memory is now sitting on is probably going to look quite a bit like the Burn, what with "We require aether" and all. But all of the lore we've been given on Rejoinings makes me think that a Rejoined Shard isn't just a place sucked dry of aether, it's not a place at all anymore: the entire pocket dimension is folded onto the Source. So, no, the Shard that Alexandria hails from, that same Shard that we are standing on when we visit Living Memory, is not the Tweflth.
I will say that there is still the slimmest possibility for Alexandria to hail from the Twelfth without contradicting what has explicitly been said, but it requires some serious jumps (namely: 1. The key is capable of time travel and the Lalafellin exodus is part of a stable time loop, and 2. Rejoined Shards still exists just in a Burn-like desolate state) and would at the very least contradict some things that were heavily implied. I just don't see the game doing this. And why would it, after all? It makes a lot more sense for Alexandria to hail from the Ninth.
This is probably not going to be telling you anything that you didn't already know, but: Alexandria is based on the kingdom of the same name from Final Fantasy IX. There's a bajillion videos out there breaking down all the FFIX lore that was used in the back half of Dawntrail. It just so happens that the Ninth Shard is one of the Shards that has yet to be Rejoined. FFXIV has, in the past, connected the number of a Shard to the Final Fantasy game of the same number. (See: the Third being Rejoined in the Calamity centered on the Crystal Tower, which was inspired by FFIII; or the Seventh being Rejoined in the Seventh Calamity, the Source-side of which involved the Seventh Garlean Legion calling down what is basically Meteor from, that's right, FFVII.) So, Alexandria being both from FFIX and from the Ninth Shard is just perfect. Why do lore acrobatics to connect it to the Twelfth when this is the simpler, neater, and more clever option?
Let me know if I missed anything, honestly I just wanted to get this off my chest. Thank you for reading this hideous wall of text, have a nice day.
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First of all, let's just write down the history of Umbral Calamities. This will be important later. Each Umbral Calamity was attuned to an element (except for the most recent, which was all elements), and each Calamity came with it the Rejoining of a Shard to the Source. For a Rejoining to occur, both the Source and the Shard being Rejoined must be heavily attunted to the same element. The degree to which the aether of the two worlds must be tipped towards said element is so unbalanced as to inevitably cause disasters for both worlds. On the Source, this disaster is called an Umbral Calamity, while for the Shard that is Rejoined, either the imbalance is enough to destroy the Shard, or the Shard is destroyed in the Rejoining. It's unclear: the best example we would have is that Norvrandt needed to be entirely flooded with light to be Rejoined, thus implying the disaster precedes the Rejoining, but that detail doesn't matter too much; all you need to know is that the Shard is aetherically imbalanced to the point of being unliveable, and then ceases to exist as its aether flows into the Source.
Here are the Umbral Calamities/Rejoinings that have occurred in the history of Etheirys, the element that was used to facilitate the Rejoining, and the Shard that was Rejoined:
First Umbral Calamity - Wind - Fifth
Second Umbral Calamity - Lightning - Twelfth
Third Umbral Calamity - Fire - Second
Fourth Umbral Calamity - Earth - Third
Fifth Umbral Calamity - Ice - Sixth
Sixth Umbral Calamity - Water - Tenth
Seventh Umbral Calamity - Astral - Seventh
Note that "Umbral" is kind of a misnomer, particularly for the Seventh Umbral Calamity, as the element(s) used do not actually have to be umbrally aligned (that is, Light-aligned). That's not important for our main topic though so we don't have to go further into that.
Now let's go through the history of Alexandria. Over the course of the Dawntrail MSQ, we learn that Alexandria is a civilization that originally hails from another Shard. The Shard it was home to had a yearly season of dangerous storms and lightning that, over time, grew longer and longer, going from taking up a quarter of the year to half of the year.
Sometime around this point in history, the Source had undergone the Fifth Umbral Calamity, and had entered the Fifth Umbral Era, a.k.a. the Age of Endless Frost. Basically, big Ice Age, bad times for everyone. During this ice age, the Lalafellin population of Aloalo Island of the South Sea Isles used a mysterious key to escape their frost-bitten homeland and travel to another world: Alexandria's Shard. We know that the Lalafellin who arrived in Alexandria's Shard are the very same that disappeared from the South Sea Isles because they brought with them the practice of Arcanima, which originated on the Source from, that's right, the Lalafellin of the South Sea Isles... the very same ones that disappeared in the middle of the Fifth Umbral Era.
It was arcanima that allowed for inscription of arcane symbols upon the miraculous substance "electrope", thus turning the stormy season of the Shard from a bane to a boon. From there, the nations of the Shard, including Alexandria and Lindblum, fought a war over the rare and immensely useful substance. This war is known as the Storm Surge, and it ended when Lindblum set off a weapon of mass destruction made using electrope technology, which ended up devastating the continent. This event is explicitly compared to an Umbral Calamity by the party members present for this exposition.
I think it's this comparison that has caused the most confusion regarding the origin of Alexandria. We already know of one Lightning-aspected Umbral Calamity: the Second Umbral Calamity, the one that Rejoined the Twelfth. Many assumed that these two Umbral Calamites must be one and the same. However, this cannot be the case. After all, while an Umbral Calamity is a crucial part of a Rejoining, there's no reason why one can't occur without a Rejoining happening. Heck, that very thing happens in the form of the Flood of Light on the First, an elemental imbalance that devastated nearly the entire Shard, but ultimately did not lead to it being Rejoined. "Umbral Calamity" can just refer to a big Calamity in which the aether of a massive region (up to and including the entire Shard in question) is dangerously imbalanced. But I know, it's not enough to just point out it doesn't have to be the same Calamity, I need to show you that it can't be the same Calamity- and it, in fact, cannot. There's two reasons why:
First of all: the timing. We know that the Lalafellin from the Source traveled to Alexandria's Shard during the Fifth Umbral Era. This is several eras, and thus hundreds of years, *after* the Calamity of Lightning that Rejoined the Twelfth! Some people have pointed out that time flows differently between Shards, and while that's true, time doesn't run *backwards* on any of the Shards. For the Aloalo Lalafellin who exist in a world that has been shaped by the historical event of the Second Umbral Calamity, to travel and end up on the Shard that was Rejoined in the Calamity, actual capital-T Time Travel would have had to occur. While time travel does exist in FFXIV's setting, it is difficult to perform, and we have been given no evidence that the mysterious key that facilitated the Lalafellin exodus is capable of not just inter-Shard travel but capital-T Time Travel.
Now, inter-Shard time travel that results in a closed loop *has* happened before- namely, in Endwalker. (No, not Shadowbringers, that wasn't a closed loop.) BUT, for it to have occurred in this case requires some assumptions (namely, about the limits of what the mysterious key can do) that I think are just too big to make given what we know now. So, if this were the only problem with the "Alexandria is from the Twelfth Shard" theory, I'd say it's still possible But it's not the only problem.
The second reason why Alexandria can't be from the Twelfth: because the Shard that Alexandria is from *still exists.* At the very end of the Dawntrail MSQ, we defeat Sphene, the artificial sky over Living Memory vanishes, and we see the Sun. The "Unlost World," the Shard that Living Memory was moved to, is a Shard that still exists and has not been Rejoined. The Twelfth has been Rejoined and thus does not exist, the Unlost World does exist, therefore the Unlost World cannot be the Rejoined Twelfth.
I've seen some people argue that a Rejoined Shard might still exist to some degree, just sucked entirely dry of its aether. I'm not convinced by this. Everything we're told about Rejoinings implies that there is nothing left of the Shard that is Rejoined. I don't think that you could even *travel to* a Rejoined Shard: there'd be no destination for you to reach. So, transporting an entire city there would be out of the question.
Now, we've seen locations that have been more or less sucked dry of aether, namely the Burn. However, the Burn is explicitly described as having at least a little bit of aether in it: that's how there are monsters still around for us to fight. In fact, the Shard that Living Memory is now sitting on is probably going to look quite a bit like the Burn, what with "We require aether" and all. But all of the lore we've been given on Rejoinings makes me think that a Rejoined Shard isn't just a place sucked dry of aether, it's not a place at all anymore: the entire pocket dimension is folded onto the Source. So, no, the Shard that Alexandria hails from, that same Shard that we are standing on when we visit Living Memory, is not the Tweflth.
I will say that there is still the slimmest possibility for Alexandria to hail from the Twelfth without contradicting what has explicitly been said, but it requires some serious jumps (namely: 1. The key is capable of time travel and the Lalafellin exodus is part of a stable time loop, and 2. Rejoined Shards still exists just in a Burn-like desolate state) and would at the very least contradict some things that were heavily implied. I just don't see the game doing this. And why would it, after all? It makes a lot more sense for Alexandria to hail from the Ninth.
This is probably not going to be telling you anything that you didn't already know, but: Alexandria is based on the kingdom of the same name from Final Fantasy IX. There's a bajillion videos out there breaking down all the FFIX lore that was used in the back half of Dawntrail. It just so happens that the Ninth Shard is one of the Shards that has yet to be Rejoined. FFXIV has, in the past, connected the number of a Shard to the Final Fantasy game of the same number. (See: the Third being Rejoined in the Calamity centered on the Crystal Tower, which was inspired by FFIII; or the Seventh being Rejoined in the Seventh Calamity, the Source-side of which involved the Seventh Garlean Legion calling down what is basically Meteor from, that's right, FFVII.) So, Alexandria being both from FFIX and from the Ninth Shard is just perfect. Why do lore acrobatics to connect it to the Twelfth when this is the simpler, neater, and more clever option?
Let me know if I missed anything, honestly I just wanted to get this off my chest. Thank you for reading this hideous wall of text, have a nice day.
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