Bard has procs which allow for the execution of additional damaging actions or weaponskills with enhanced potency. While the governing proc statistics are known, there has been little exploration into how much additional variability they impart into damage distributions.
My recent theorycrafting project shows how damage distributions can be computed to account for all sources of variability for Bard: procs, hit types, and random damage rolls. Methods for computing damage variability of each proc type (Pitch Perfect, Heartbreak Shot, Apex Arrow, and Refulgent Arrow) were developed and compared to damage variability when the most likely proc rates are assumed.
While there can be a substantial increase in damage variability for specific actions, the effect is negligible for a realistic rotation. For a full two-minute sequence, accounting for procs only led to the standard deviation of the DPS distribution increasing by 9.5%, compared to assuming most probable values. These findings suggest that damage variability due to procs is negligible compared to hit type variability and random damage rolls. This indicates that Bard's procs are more likely a means of making the job's rotation more engaging through proc management, rather than a major source of variability. For most cases of accounting for damage variability, assuming the most probable proc rates is sufficient.
Link to full write up: https://media.githubusercontent.com/...mage_model.pdf
Continue reading...
My recent theorycrafting project shows how damage distributions can be computed to account for all sources of variability for Bard: procs, hit types, and random damage rolls. Methods for computing damage variability of each proc type (Pitch Perfect, Heartbreak Shot, Apex Arrow, and Refulgent Arrow) were developed and compared to damage variability when the most likely proc rates are assumed.
While there can be a substantial increase in damage variability for specific actions, the effect is negligible for a realistic rotation. For a full two-minute sequence, accounting for procs only led to the standard deviation of the DPS distribution increasing by 9.5%, compared to assuming most probable values. These findings suggest that damage variability due to procs is negligible compared to hit type variability and random damage rolls. This indicates that Bard's procs are more likely a means of making the job's rotation more engaging through proc management, rather than a major source of variability. For most cases of accounting for damage variability, assuming the most probable proc rates is sufficient.
Link to full write up: https://media.githubusercontent.com/...mage_model.pdf
Continue reading...